Analysis: BTC Decouples Unusually from US Treasury Yields, Marking a Structural Shift in Its Macroeconomic Role

Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost has released a market analysis stating that macroeconomic factors have become the dominant narrative in today’s cryptocurrency market. As a result, key indicators such as the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury yields are now closely monitored by investors, as they reflect institutional sentiment and the overall state of global liquidity. When both the DXY and bond yields rise simultaneously, capital often flows out of risk assets. In such an environment, Bitcoin typically experiences a pullback. Historically, bear markets in cryptocurrencies have often coincided with strong upward trends in yields and the DXY. Conversely, when the DXY and yields lose momentum, investors’ risk appetite shifts toward risk assets. These periods are usually associated with monetary easing or market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, thereby fueling bullish sentiment in the crypto market. What stands out in the current cycle is the unusual decoupling between Bitcoin and bond yields. Despite yields reaching some of the highest levels in Bitcoin’s history, Bitcoin has continued its upward trend, often accelerating when the DXY declines. This anomaly suggests a structural shift in Bitcoin’s role within the macroeconomic landscape, with Bitcoin increasingly being viewed as a store of value. This new narrative may be redefining how Bitcoin responds to traditional macroeconomic forces.