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$AVNT boom

Crypto narratives move faster than reality. Liquidity doesn’t wait for fundamentals to catch up. When attention crystallizes around a meta (whether restaking, AI tokens, or prediction markets) capital surges in first. Fundamentals often trail by quarters, if not years. And many confuse this liquidity sprint for validation. It isn’t. Liquidity outruns truth. ● The Data Restaking is the clearest example. By mid-2024, restaking protocols had absorbed $15B in TVL. It looked like unstoppable momentum. But revenues across the stack told a different story: less than $200M annualized. The gap was staggering. The inflows weren’t buying into proven economics, they were buying the story. This pattern repeats across cycles: ➢ DeFi Summer 2020: billions in TVL piled into protocols before fee markets matured. ➢ NFT boom 2021: sales volume soared while secondary royalties eroded within months. ➢ Restaking 2024: capital outpaced revenue, setting up a fragile equilibrium. Liquidity flows at narrative speed. Truth compounds much slower. ● The Fragility of Mistaking One for the Other The danger lies in equating liquidity with durability. Liquidity can be mercenary, rotating at the first sign of a shinier ticker. Fundamentals anchor value. Without them, TVL is a mirage. This is why consensus trades often collapse: once inflows stall, there’s nothing underneath to hold the structure. Conviction evaporates. Prices follow. ● The Edge for Investors The discipline is in separating the two: 1. Liquidity shows where attention is. 2. Fundamentals show where staying power is. The art is to trade the first without forgetting the second. The edge is not mistaking a sprint for a marathon. ● Closing Thought In crypto, stories outrun reality. But over time, only truth compounds. The investor who understands this rhythm doesn’t just chase liquidity, they measure when it aligns with fundamentals. That’s when conviction is real.

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