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France is Europe. And Europe is the temple of regulation. In this monetary control tower, the Hexagon does not want to play the lone wolf. No question of embracing bitcoin before the 27? Yet, sometimes, it winks at the most daring. Latest twist? A legal clarification on Lombard credit backed by cryptos. Not a revolution. But a step, even if disguised, is still a step. The crypto Lombard credit was not born yesterday. It was already discussed in hushed banking circles. This loan, guaranteed by a crypto wallet, offers a promise: liquidity without liquidation. You lock your cryptos. You receive euros. In case of default, the collateral goes to the scrapyard. But where France is finally moving is on the legal framework. The DDADUE 5 law, in force since April 30, allows “the establishment of a pledge by signed declaration of the owner of the cryptos“. One more formality. And one less ambiguity. This change fits the MiCA logic, the great European crypto market charter. “The crypto Lombard credit is a great tool for structured HODLers“, comments Arnaud Touati . But beware: perhaps we structure, but we do not democratize yet. Dan Arroche tempers: No revolution, just a legal clarification. And still, this is only on paper. The ground remains minefielded. French banks remain skeptical. The risk is too volatile. Solvency ratios too fragile. In short, real use remains marginal. A regulatory advance does not always rhyme with practical progress. Because in detail, the French tax system is a true labyrinth. And in this labyrinth, crypto Lombard credit might well fall into a trap. Dan Arroche warns: The question is whether placing cryptos as collateral = transfer of ownership = taxable event?. In other words, using your bitcoins as a pledge could activate… taxation. And there, no one is joking anymore. Two cases must be distinguished: In other words, a tax lawyer becomes mandatory. To avoid innovation turning into an administrative disaster. Here are the key data to remember : A psychological factor is added to this legal equation: fear of banks. Their cautiousness slows adoption. “Obtaining crypto Lombard credit on acceptable terms is almost impossible“, concludes Arroche. We pretend to legalize, but no one is playing along. For whom is this new credit? For the average saver? No. For private banking clients, maybe. For large crypto portfolios, surely. This loan remains a wealth optimization tool, not a gateway to regulated DeFi. In fact, very few players are ready. Few institutions accept this type of pledge. The crypto market is still deemed too unstable. Yet, some see an opportunity here. This credit can become an alternative to asset sales, maintaining exposure to the market. So it appeals to those who want to “hodl while buying a house“. But provided they are well advised, and well capitalized. And while some move forward, others denounce. On X, a user mocks: Historically all war loans were scams. Luxembourg life insurance, crypto in self-custody, the threat is serious. Could crypto Lombard credit be a Trojan horse to repatriate cryptos on centralized platforms? MiCA aims to reassure. But for now, it intrigues more than it convinces. As long as the banking infrastructure does not follow, the promise remains dead letter. France’s slowness on cryptos no longer surprises anyone. Even Michael Saylor, on his American pedestal, singles out this inertia. And invites the country’s players to adopt bitcoin more , rather than regulate it the old way. For now, the Hexagon regulates. It moves forward, but in small steps. Too small? Time will tell.

The world of investment has been revolutionized over the past decade by the democratization of ETFs and passive management. However, this investment strategy is beginning to show worrying signs of fatigue. With potentially overvalued markets and forecasts of anemic returns for the next decade, it is urgent to question ETFs. The Shiller CAPE indicator (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings), a valuation measure that examines stock prices relative to average earnings over 10 years, is currently reaching alarming levels. Historically, high values of this indicator have preceded periods of low returns, notably before the crashes of 1929, 2000 and 2007. Currently, the CAPE remains at levels close to those observed in 2021, suggesting a persistent overvaluation. Major institutional players share this concern. Goldman Sachs and Black Rock predict annual returns of only 3% for the coming decade, while Bank of America anticipates between 0 and 1% per year. These projections sharply contrast with the performances investors have become accustomed to in recent years. Only Morgan Stanley remains moderately optimistic with a forecast of 7% annual returns. This situation is all the more worrying as we observe an excessive market concentration on a few tech giants. The imbalance between the valuation of the 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 and the rest of the market dangerously recalls the situation preceding the 2000 tech bubble crash. The history of financial markets is marked by lost decades which many contemporary investors seem to have forgotten. Between 1966 and 1982, the Dow Jones stagnated for nearly 18 years. During the 1970s, the real annual average return on U.S. stocks was negative (-1.6%). The 2000s experienced even worse performance with an average of -3.5% per year. The Japanese case is particularly interesting. Since the burst of its financial bubble in 1990, the Nikkei index took 34 years to regain its previous levels. This prolonged period of deflation and stock market stagnation should serve as a warning to Western investors. The belief that passive approaches will continue to deliver returns similar to those of the last decade now seems to rely more on faith than on rational analysis. Several macroeconomic time bombs threaten global growth in the years to come. Demographic aging is a major challenge: in developed countries, people over 50 hold 70% of significant wealth. However, these generations consume less and prepare for retirement, which weighs on overall demand. Moreover, we could enter an unstable economic environment, oscillating between inflation and deflation. If the end of globalization and geopolitical tensions initially push prices up, a subsequent economic slowdown could lead to a deflationary spiral difficult to halt, as Japan has experienced. We may be entering a new economic era characterized by more protectionism, instability, and uncertainty. These upheavals call into question the investment strategies that worked in the last fifteen years. Faced with these challenges, a more nuanced investment approach is necessary. The relevance of the strategy strongly depends on age and investment horizon. For a young person in their 20s or 30s with several decades ahead, DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) on ETFs remains a valid method to start, even in an overvalued market. Conversely, for people aged 40-50 who make up the majority of wealth holders, caution is required. These investors cannot afford to endure a lost decade as they approach retirement. They should therefore consider alternative approaches and build an antifragile portfolio. Rather than investing blindly and regularly, it may be wise to wait for more favorable entry points when markets offer attractive valuations. This is precisely the strategy applied by Warren Buffett , who currently holds over 300 billion dollars in cash waiting for better opportunities. Passive management and ETFs are not “dead” per se, but their effectiveness depends on the context. In a rapidly inflationary environment like that observed in Turkey, stock indices can serve as effective protection against currency devaluation. Conversely, in a deflationary scenario, they could underperform for years. Financial common sense urges us to adopt a balanced position. ETFs and DCA remain valuable tools within a global investment strategy, but they should not be the sole approach, especially in a potentially overvalued market. The era of “all ETF” may be coming to an end, not because these instruments have lost their relevance, but because the economic context now demands more sophisticated and adaptive strategies. To navigate the next decade, investors will need to diversify with other asset classes such as bitcoin .

The next move on ETH/BTC will be violent. Last week showed how the altcoin market can pump once the KING of alts starts moving. Imagine when the real pump comes... Print season.

South Korean presidential candidates clash over stablecoins South Korean presidential candidates have engaged in a heated debate over stablecoin policy. Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the largest opposition Democratic Party, advocated on May 8 that "a Korean won stablecoin market should be established as soon as possible," warning that otherwise there would be an "outflow of national wealth." The proposal was strongly opposed by Lee Jun-seok, the candidate of the Reform Party, who cited the collapse of Terra in 2022 and pointed out that the algorithmic stablecoin KRT had disastrous consequences due to the lack of real asset endorsement. Lee Jae-myung's supporter and former lawmaker Kim Byung-wook countered that global regulators have clearly distinguished between algorithmic stablecoins and compliant stablecoins with a 1:1 collateral of cash/treasury bonds, and that Korean won stablecoins can reduce cross-border remittance costs. Industry insiders revealed that this is the first time that South Korean politicians have publicly debated technical issues on crypto assets, and the election results may determine the direction of the country's crypto regulation. The general election will be held on June 3. (Cryptonews)