Swell KursSWELL

I think we will see a major breakdown in the equity market within the next months, latest Q2 2026. Before you laugh I‘m NONE of those „doom posters“ that always talk about an impending crash but I talk about it when I think the time is right. Having this said I CAN NOT SAY when exactly the crash will happen. Markets can stay irrational and trend higher before major turndowns than most of us think. The signs will be in the charts on majors: - Swing Failure Patterns on HTF - Rejections fib extensions - Bullish HTF HOBs turning into bearish ones - Market Structure changes…. We are prepared Knowledge wise. We can spot weakness when it appears. Having this said these are the reasons I think a recession is likely to happen: 1. The yield curve un-inversion is a proven late-cycle marker. History is consistent: the big crashes of 2000, 2008, and 2020 didn’t line up with the inversion itself, but with the un-inversion when the Fed began cutting. That’s not random. It’s because un-inversion happens when the economy is already rolling over and the Fed is forced into easing. Stocks typically lag that reality. 2. Market Money Fund (MMF) Levels are at record size (7.5 trillion) Think of it as a giant “cash parking lot” for investors. A money market fund pools money from investors and invests it in very short-term, safe assets like: •U.S. Treasury bills (T-Bills) •Repurchase agreements (repos) •Commercial paper (short-term corporate debt) Investors use MMFs because they’re liquid (easy to access) and pay a yield (right now ~5%) with very low risk compared to stocks or long-term bonds. When MMFs swell to record size (like the current $7.5 trillion), it signals investors prefer safety and guaranteed yield over risk assets like stocks or crypto. Wall Street likes to spin it as “dry powder” ready to flow into equities. In reality, it’s a symptom of late-cycle caution — the same thing we saw in 2000 and 2007, right before major crashes. 3. Rising long yields into Fed cuts is unusual and potentially dangerous. Normally, when the Fed cuts, both short and long yields fall. That’s a sign of easing working. But right now, long yields (10Y, 30Y) are rising due to Inflation fears and less confidence into a stable future. demand higher long yields to compensate their loss of confidence. This is potentially dangerous because mortgages, car loans, student loans — all tied to long rates — get more expensive even while the Fed “eases.” 4. Weak Labor and Inflation Data Nonfarm Payrolls (August 2025) grew by only +22,000 jobs. That is very low, well below what used to be expected. The unemployment rate is ~ 4.3% as of August. It hasn’t moved much recently, but the growth in unemployment and stagnant job creation suggest labor demand is cooling. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics cut its estimate of job creation by ~911,000 jobs for the 12 months ending March 2025 compared to earlier reports. That’s a major downgrade, indicating that what appeared strong growth was weaker than thought. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (for all items) in August 2025 is +2.9%. Core CPI (excluding food & energy) is about +3.1% over the last 12 months. That’s higher than the Fed’s target (around 2%) and indicates persistent inflation pressure in less volatile components. This combination — weak labor, persistent inflation — points to a stagflation-like risk or at least a scenario where the Fed is under pressure: cut rates to ease labor stress, but inflation might push back - not exactly a soft landing story „But Phoenix all of this blabla about recession dangers and you don’t even know when it will kick in, it could be months lol“ True. But I will have cash aside when it happens to buy the crash. And I keep in mind that major HTF supply levels could lead into a more severe retrace than we expect.

$AVNT $1 📊 Fundamental Overview Avantis (AVNT) represents a compelling DeFi innovation as the largest perpetuals exchange built on Base blockchain. The protocol distinguishes itself through: 🎯 Core Value Proposition: First DeFi platform offering both RWA (Real World Assets) and crypto trading Cross-asset trading capabilities including traditional indices (NASDAQ, SPY) Zero-fee perpetuals (ZFP) and loss-rebate mechanisms Multi-product roadmap expanding to money markets and prediction markets 💰 Institutional Backing: Backed by tier-1 investors including Pantera Capital and Founders Fund Billions in processed trading volume demonstrating product-market fit Strong technical foundation with comprehensive documentation 📈 Technical Analysis Summary Current Price Action (as of 01:20 Hong Kong Time): 15-minute timeframe: Showing "Strong Downtrend" with weak downward momentum 1-hour timeframe: Displaying "Uptrend" despite recent weakness Key Support: $0.774 (1h) / $0.818 (15m) Key Resistance: $0.856 (1h) / $0.850 (15m) Technical Indicators: RSI (1h): 61.9 - approaching overbought but still healthy MACD: Showing divergence with negative histogram (-0.023) Bollinger Bands: Price trading near middle line ($0.803), suggesting consolidation 💹 Market Microstructure Analysis Order Book Dynamics: Significant imbalance: -31.8% (5-level) favoring sellers Large resistance: $0.88 (31,468 AVNT) and $0.915 (26,698 AVNT) Strong support: $0.82 (21,341 AVNT) providing crucial floor Fund Flow Intelligence: 24h Net Flow: +333,019 AVNT (bullish institutional accumulation) Recent 8h: -131,832 AVNT (short-term profit-taking) Large vs Small Orders: Recent large order selling pressure evident 🔥 Trading Opportunity Assessment IMMEDIATE SETUP: Given your existing long position at $0.837 with 20x leverage (currently -19.4% ROI), here's the strategic outlook: 📍 Position Management Strategy Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (60% probability) Target 1: $0.856 (immediate resistance) Target 2: $0.88 (major resistance cluster) Rationale: 24h positive fund flow + institutional backing Scenario 2: Correction Phase (40% probability) Critical Support: $0.774 (must hold) Stop Loss: $0.76 (below Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) 🎯 Actionable Trading Ideas For Current Position Holders: Partial Profit Taking: Consider reducing 30% of position if price reaches $0.85 Risk Management: Tighten stop to $0.80 to protect against further downside Add on Strength: If price breaks $0.856 with volume, consider adding to position For New Entries: Entry Zone: $0.82-$0.825 (near current support) Target: $0.88-$0.90 (15-20% upside potential) Stop Loss: $0.774 (technical support break) 🚨 Risk Considerations High Volatility: ATR of 0.062 indicates significant price swings Leverage Risk: Your 20x position amplifies both gains and losses Market Sentiment: Recent selling pressure from large orders requires monitoring 💡 Strategic Outlook AVNT's fundamentals remain robust with its unique RWA-crypto bridge positioning it for the next DeFi evolution. The recent correction appears to be healthy profit-taking rather than fundamental deterioration. The 24-hour positive fund flow of +333K AVNT suggests institutional confidence remains intact. Recommendation: HOLD current position with tight risk management. The protocol's innovative approach to cross-asset trading and strong institutional backing provide medium-term upside potential despite short-term volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss. Please conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions. Analysis conducted at 01:20, September 15, 2025 $U2U $NEIROETH $ORDER $SWELL $WHY $SUNDOG $BTC $ETH $DOGS $IOST $LTC $BCH

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$ETC $SWELL Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) Holds $0.21 Support, Setting Stage for Next Bullish Wave Hedera Hashgraph’s native token HBAR has reaffirmed its bullish structure after successfully defending the $0.21 support zone, sparking optimism for continued upside momentum. Backed by strong technical confluence and positive market sentiment, the token is showing signs of a sustained rally. 🔹 Technical Confluence at $0.21 The $0.21 level has emerged as a decisive floor for HBAR, aligning with multiple indicators that strengthen its relevance: 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels confirm the support. Key moving averages reinforce the zone as a technical anchor. High-volume node adds weight, signaling strong accumulation. This convergence highlights institutional interest and makes $0.21 a crucial battleground for buyers. 🔹 Higher Lows Support Bullish Structure HBAR has maintained its trend of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting buyers are firmly in control. Despite facing rejection at $0.30, the $0.18 order block remains intact, forming a secondary safety net for bulls. The latest bounce from $0.21 likely marks another higher low, keeping the broader bullish structure alive and hinting at more upside in the near term. 🔹 Positive Funding Rates Signal Demand Market sentiment is strongly tilted in favor of buyers: Funding rates remain positive, reflecting demand for long exposure. Open interest continues to rise, suggesting traders are positioning for further gains. This environment often fuels a bullish feedback loop. As longs dominate, shorts may attempt to enter, but rising prices can trigger short covering, accelerating momentum higher. 🔹 Institutional Boost: SWIFT Testing Adding to HBAR’s long-term credibility, SWIFT has begun testing both XRP and HBAR in its cross-border payment infrastructure trials. This move not only validates Hedera’s technology but also strengthens its relevance in global financial innovation. 🔹 Outlook: What’s Next for HBAR? As long as HBAR holds above $0.21, the outlook remains bullish. Buyers are expected to continue driving momentum, with new resistance levels likely to be tested in the coming weeks. Sustained positive funding rates and strong institutional signals could accelerate HBAR’s next move, potentially retesting $0.30 and beyond. 📊 Bottom line: Hedera Hashgraph is positioned for continuation. With a solid base at $0.21, bullish structure intact, and market sentiment favoring longs, HBAR could be gearing up for its next leg higher.